Saturday, May 10, 2008

Oil, future and where the hell are we going?

Anything wrt to oil interests me and I was trolling the fool boards and landed on this discussion, http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=26634077&sort=whole

Interesting points are made by the OP(original poster) bozob - Oil is being used as a hedge for $ depreciation(so is gold) and it is long due for a correction soon...Supply/Demand forecasts the high oil prices are here to stay and continue their march upward, however, post 16 offers respite and hope otherwise. As one poster wrote, Exxon(XOM) will comtinue to make and post record profits...but 100% susceptible to what rises falls owing to the rise of Prius revolution.

Also, the whole "PRIUS revolution" has begun slowly - it will take a few years, maybe 5-10 assuming that this roughly the timespan the average Joe and Jane buy their next car(it cd also be sooner due to high inflation, depressed wages).


Sources:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121010625118671575.html?mod=...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121015830066573617.html?mod=...
http://instapundit.com/archives2/018985.php
http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/2008/05/fleet-positions-itself-for-war.html

This link derives a special mention and place in this post :

http://www.superfactory.com/articles/meyer_what_in_the_world.htm By Herbert Meyer

Herbert Meyer served during the Reagan administration as special assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence and Vice Chairman of the CIA’s National Intelligence Council. In these positions, he managed production of the U.S. National Intelligence Estimates and other top-secret projections for the President and his national security advisers. Meyer is widely credited with being the first senior U.S. Government official to forecast the Soviet Unions collapse, for which he later was awarded the U.S. National Intelligence Distinguished Service Medal, the intelligence community's highest honor. Formerly an associate editor of FORTUNE, he is alsothe author of several books.





Consumption of Oil by Nations
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_con-energy-oil-consumption

Showing latest available data.
Rank Countries Amount (top to bottom)

#1 United States: 20,730,000 bbl/day
#2 China: 6,534,000 bbl/day
#3 Japan: 5,578,000 bbl/day
#4 Germany: 2,650,000 bbl/day
#5 Russia: 2,500,000 bbl/day
#6 India: 2,450,000 bbl/day
#7 Canada: 2,294,000 bbl/day
#8 Korea, South: 2,149,000 bbl/day
#9 Brazil: 2,100,000 bbl/day
#10 France: 1,970,000 bbl/day

Finally, this thread, kind of ends(atleast for now) with comments from "bozob" which the author of this blog seems to agree...history has shown this is true and history needs to be respected and revisited too(Santayana's warning to the masses must be remembered here!).

At least for me, I'm certainly not saying anything is different. Higher demand and lower supply... those have been going on forever. Prices will rise; I am 100% certain of that.

I'm not so certain of that.

Oil cost far more than many other forms of energy with its primary advantage being its portability. There are currently a number of research efforts to find ways of storing enouhg of other forms of energy to make them portable. Once this happens then the other forms of energy become a replacement for oil.

What happens when you can charge up your car in short periods of time for long trips the equivalent of about a $1/gallon? That is the estimate of the cost of equivalent power and there seem to be a number of potential candidates to achieve this.

Lithium-ion batteries that have a nanowire component could last much longer and store up to ten times more charge than conventional batteries. A paper online this week in Nature Nanotechnology reports that these batteries, with anodes made from silicon nanowires, are meeting high expectations.

Rechargeable lithium-ion batteries are found in numerous portable electronics — from iPods to laptops. Typically, carbon is used as the anode electrode in these batteries, but silicon anodes should be able to store up to ten times more charge. The problem with silicon is that the repeated insertion and extraction of lithium ions causes it to degrade and fall apart, leading to poor battery performance over time.

The anodes designed by Yi Cui and co-workers are made from silicon nanowires that are grown directly on a stainless steel substrate, which serves as the current collector. These anodes reach the maximum theoretical charge capacity for silicon on the first charge cycle and stay close to 75% of this maximum over many charge and discharge cycles. The study attributes the success of the silicon nanowire anodes to a combination of excellent electrical contact with the substrate, improved strain relief and the one-dimensional electrical properties of silicon nanowires.
http://www.nature.com/nnano/press_releases/nnano1207.html

A traditional Li-Ion battery configured for a Prius would give it a range of about 7 miles. Toyota is supposedly planning a plug-in that will hold two batteries for a range of up to 14 miles. With this technology you could get 140 miles and improve charge times.

Another area being explored are micro-turbines as highly efficient electrical generators.

I think we are on the verge of another cusp in automobile efficiencies. The last one improved fuel efficiencies as much as two to threefold using aerodynamics, newer and lighter materials, and computer controlled engine controls like fuel injection and valve timing. The new technologies could likely see another doubling or tripling of fuel efficiencies.

Remove that much demand from world oil demand and you'll see prices drop again.

Monday, April 14, 2008

StockGumShoe

I keep getting teaser emails about the next ten-bagger, 20-bagger stock and an opportunity of a life-time from people/institutions all the time. They are dime a dozen and make you feel bad and wince for many reasons, be it you dont have money, or a trading account or the fact that you will not get rich because you passed on this offer which could be availed at only $100, or $200 or $800 per year...

UNTIL, I found out about "stockgumshoe" - this is authored by what I consider an extremely intelligent and mature individual. As a result, he has been promoted to the links section...you can find a link to stockgumshoe's website on the left.

StockGumshoe, reveals each one of the teaser stocks in the universe of all stock-newsletters, totally FREE OF COST! Check what the fuss is all about here, http://www.stockgumshoe.com/about

Happy n-baggers!

How to spot a bubble(thank Rishi)

You can follow the link to the article by Rishi.

What goes up comes down.
What goes way way way up comes way way way down over way way way too much time(an exaggeration, but you get the point!)

Friday, April 11, 2008

Bye Bye American Dream!

What is capitalism when its constituents are the same, 40 years before, 40 years hence! What is scary is the system was manipulated in such a way that “cheap gas prices” were there to stay, forever!

 

Gas guzzlers, like the SUV’s are a recent phenomenon, of the 90’s. Suburbia – was possible because of this, long commutes dithered none. Freeways were put to the best use…now, with gas prices rising continuously much to our chagrin and shock and showing no sign of abating, the near future is not rosy at all. The distant one does not look good either, with wage stagnation and housing deflation, there is no alternative for people to borrow, against what? Also, I am curious to see just how insane it will get…I remember those days where a popular TV bran “AIWA” was being introduced – “Bring your old television, trade it in for a new”. Now, it is highly unlikely you are going to see the big three in the USA (GM, Ford, Chrysler) do something on these lines…I will be happy to trade in my Honda for an electric car…but, not, wait, they want us to suck dry. First, I will be forced to buy a fuel cell/battery hybrid and enslaved in debt for god knows how many years and when the rest of the world has overtaken us, I will be sold the next solution. There seems to be no impetus to nip the problem in the bud…Just when will the American consumer will say “enough is enough” – maybe, not.

 

The cost of gasoline in Europe/Asia is upwards of $5 a gallon…there are dis-incentives to not use your car in Europe, it’s the opposite here. In India, inspite of the high gas prices, the maximum distance a motorist will clock is no more than 10-15miles(30miles roundtrip). Compare that to the United States, the example in the article below, the gentleman drives 100miles. At the place where I work, there are people who drive 50-75miles one way…

 

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/homepage/20080409_Long_commutes__gas_prices_crimping_American_Dream.html

 

McMansion Saga Pro Vs Cons continues

Very illuminating post, the kind of stuff, I personally rue and muse over…if you are not an expert, atleast have one or be under the tutelage of one J. Read “Buyer Beware” below.

~~~

BUYER BEWARE

Many of these McMansions, (and many new homes of all sizes), are very poorly constructed. Under the granite and marble is often a slew of defects and code violations. Even a cheap starter house is supposed to meet code but houses of all prices often don’t!

I bought a modest ranch house in 2000, of about 1800 squ. ft. That was big to me. I didn’t have any fancies, just stated again and again to the real estate agent, “I want quality construction, not frills” I didn’t know what quality construction really was, and learned the hard way that neither did the industry. Don’t know what it is or don’t care.

I got a highly defective house and spent five years embroiled in a construction defect dispute. My lawyer committed took my retainer fee, did no work, and committed forgery, so I was on my own, unwilling to trust a new lawyer just yet. It’s not that easy to find a good lawyer because they know builders fold their company and don’t pay court judgments and debts.

Fortunately for me I did manage to settle, but I learned something that every buyer of a new home ought to be concerned about. Many builders these days take extraordinary shortcuts to plump up their bottom line, and these shortcuts can make your new house essentially “disposable.” The so-called 10 yr warranty policies on some new homes are a joke. The policy comes after closing since the builder buys it, and they exclude almost everything. If you want to dispute a claim you have to arbitrate wtih their kangaroo court. I escaped that problem due to a federal law concerning govt backed (VA and FHA) loans that says the warranty co can’t force you to arbitrate: 24 CFR 203.204(g). If you need that regulation it’s on the Cornell Law site under Code of Federal Regulations, title 24, section 203.204(g).
No thanks to any lawyers I paid, I found this regulation thru free consumer info and was able to use it successfully
.

As I go past new developments now I see horrendous examples of shortcuts on house after house. People think that with what I know now I should feel assured that I could buy/build again with confidence but I don’t feel assured at all. It’s obvious that a person has to either be, or know, an expert in construction and law before they have any hope of assuring their new house will be well built, and the contract fair and enforceable. I was supposedly a pretty educated and cautious consumer before but I still got taken. I’m even more cautious now, but the more I learn, the more I realize the scams evolve faster than the consumer protection info. It is truly Buyer Beware. Owners of these McMansions may or may not have construction problems but if they do they’re in for a world of hurt because a junky big expensive house is a bigger financial burden than a small junky house.

Another one from the “Pro-McMansionites”

I just “stole” a 5,000+ sq. ft. very well built mansion on 5+ acres. It’s friggin’ wonderful to have room to hang all the beautiful art I’ve collected in my consulting travels. Also we have a gorgeous pool and the gourmet kitchen that my wife has always wanted.

I plan to finish the 4,000+ sq. foot full sunlight basement that opens onto the pool and jacuzzi, so my elderly Mom can move in with us in 2 or 3 years. The basement is already wired and plumbed for 2 large bedrooms with walk-in closets and full baths, a kitchen, media room, full woodworking workship, see-through fireplace, etc. I figure it’ll cost about $120K to add another 4,000 sq. ft. to the house. The extra heating is really not that bad, since we do take care.

Oh, and mansions certainly are all they’re cracked up to be. I especially love the instant-on and unlimited hot water that comes from our very full water well.

My wife and I currently have our daughter and elderly WWII Marine father-in-law living with us. He loves it.

Yeah, I was going to downsize from my paid-off 3,200 sq ft. house on a creek, but then this fantastic deal came along. Let me tell you…if you have a chance to get a mansion for what a tract home in California or New York costs, take it. I’m diggin’ it to the max.

And some smart not-everyday-everyplace, uncommonly common sense

AISGREEN,

Good for you. Most people will read your post as a description of all this excess, but, in fairness, you have one elderly parent living with you, and are planning on another coming soon. So, four adults, plus your daughter living there is not even all that inefficient. So good luck with the renovations, and enjoy that pool!

To everyone, if you can afford it, I mean REALLY afford it, then live it up, and God Bless! If not, less is fine too.

 

 

 

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

Ichneumon Wasp - I Bow to thee!

 

The story of ichneumon wasp

 

Read this about wasps - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ichneumon_wasp

 

Last night, we saw a DVD(Life in the Undergrowth, produced by BBC, David Attenborough) about insects and were shocked to learn the story of this wasp. So check this out...

 

It all begins with the blue butterfly in Europe. In Spring, the blue butterflies mate and their eggs are laid on leaves of plants which hatch into caterpillars and drop off to the ground. The funny thing about caterpillars are they emit a chemical called pheromones whose smell makes a very strange thing happen – the pheromones are intentionally meant to confuse the ants - which think that it is one of their own and take it back to their nests and clean it and take good care of them. These caterpillars are so smart they even make the same noises as ant larvae so they can be fed by the ants...the oblivious ants feed them for as long as it takes.

 

In a typical meadow, there are upto 100 ant hills and guess what...The story of ichneumon wasp starts here. Ichneumon pronounced as ick-new-mon, knows the exact ant-nest where the caterpillars are being taken care off - they enter the ant-nest and as you can imagine, the ants realize the wasp has arrived and start attacking it wildly. The wasp produces a pheromone which causes a bizarre thing to happen - the equivalent of "maya" or magic - the ants start attacking each other instead of the intruder. The wasp proceeds to the rooms where the eggs are being protected and finds the caterpillar and injects an egg into each one of them and having achieved its objective, it takes off.

The ants regain their composure and go back to tending to their own and the caterpillars. In due course of time, the caterpillars form the Chrysalis and enter the last stage of metamorphosis…all along being taken care of by the ants. The blue butterfly eventually comes out and heads out into the open to begin its adult life. Soon after, the ichneumon wasp too comes out of the chrysalis having gotten a safe ride through the seasons and food from the host which was the host of the poor ants J.

 

Last night, we were totally shocked to see this exploitation and deception and double deception to see among insects

and we tend to beat our fellow humans for showing lack of morality and character. The wonders of creation, lust for life and the complex intricacies – all showed in this fine example from 3 different species…so much to learn!

 

Another note about the DVD, “the silk spinners” from DVD-1 is mind blowing. Especially the piece about the Gladiator spiders and Bolas spiders…chilling to say it in 1 word. In DVD-2, “intimate relations”, yet another spider + wasp story…where the spider is aware of and does nothing to get rid of its guest…which returns the favour by injecting the spider with a hormone which makes it go loopy and loose its core-competencies, web making and spinning silk. Bizarre, huh? There is also the piece about ants and trees co-operating…a must-see!

McMansions - to make my previous post complete

Otherwise, it wd be incomplete, right.

 

Live in a 4000 sq ft house with wife and 5 kids just outside the city on 5 acres with trees, stream, etc. Perfect size for us, could even be bigger. Only regret is that I did not move here sooner so that my older kids could have enjoyed building tree houses, etc. the way my younger kids have. House is designed to entertain with a large great room and less than 1 mile from the high school, so my older kids bring over a bunch of their friends everyday for lunch… and after school… and on the weekends. It is great to be the ‘hang-out place’ for high schooler as opposed to the mall or whatever. As for the extra work/chores, sure it comes with the turf, but the kids are all expected to help out, so it becomes (mostly) a positive family experience. After kids are grown and out of the house, this will hopefully be a place grandkids will love to visit (and there will be enough space to house them), so don’t see myself downsizing. So I agree with RJS- all a matter of perspective and someone’s lifestyle choices.

Comment by Bigger is better - April 7, 2008 at 2:47 pm

The concept that the Suburbs are dying and no one wants McMansions anymore is pure fluff and folly.

While it IS true that the average square foot of new construction is leveling off, that has as much to do with construction costs as it does with any large trends towards smaller housing.

The one thing that is true is that because of the commutes, more and more people will look to move closer “in”. This trend has been taking place for 10 yrs+ nationwide. It doesnt mean no one is going to buy new houses out in the Suburbs or Ex-burbs. It just means demand will change with that. But it certainly wont collapse. Thats where the least expensive housing will tend to be.

Every decade or so, we get a market correction not unlike were having now. Once the prices get “corrected”, demand will go back to where it was before.

Whoever commented that farmers were going to buy back (which they sold to builders in the first place) land to farm again is clueless. They couldnt afford it, even with the raising of Corn prices.

It’s just part of the cycle we go through.

 

Are you a POOP?

Now, don’t get me wrong, POOP is “Prisoner Of Our Property” as Dan writes in the comments.

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2008/04/07/are-mcmansions-making-some-americans-unhappy/?mod=MostPopular?mod=fpa_blogs

 

Some interesting comments,

1.       The suburbs will be abandoned in favor of cities and farmers will buy back the land and plow down developments. http://www.endofsuburbia.com/

2.       George comments “McMansions will go the way of previous excessive residences and turn into bed and breakfasts, businesses, nursing homes, multiplexes and communes.”

3.       Loving Atlanta write, “With my most recent home purchase, we bypassed the suburbs and went into the city which meant a MUCH smaller yard and somewhat smaller house. The time savings from lawn care alone is tremendous. We also save with more convenient shops, public transit cut auto costs, and easier time getting together with neighbors. None of this was possible in our former golf course community.”

4.       Matt in Plano, “Also, just because you can “afford it” doesn’t mean you “have to have it”. Living “richly” is not an entitlement, and certainly not all it is cracked up to be, but we cannot seem to learn this lesson well enough to pass it along to our children, who then set out on the same misguided journey. “Less is more” - and our focus should be on each other”

 

Read more in the comments section

 

 

Alan Greenspan defending his position in the WSJ

Greenspan reminds me of my grand-mother, old withery and full of kindness in those eyes and in speech…his oratory and picking the right words for the right moment is unmatched. Here is one gem of a quote,

 

“I am reasonably certain that I am right here. If I am proved wrong, I will change. I do not have a vested interest in holding wrong ideas”

 

Read the full article for free on the WSJ online:

http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB120760341392296107.html

 

The Wire finale on TV(had written this long ago, never posted)

The Wire(TV Series on HBO)

 

What interested me was the lines in bold below, which happens to be my own observation(not conclusion), echoed in the press and in print too. The press seems to have indicted themselves too by printing this.

 

I have never watched “The Wire”, cause I don’t have HBO J…never heard of it until now. Never watched the Sopranos either and the dramatic cut to black when the season ended raised uproar and disappointment among the fans. My taste for the non-mainstream, unsung underdogs perked up after reading this article and maybe, I will request season one from the local library and pack a weekend of “The Wire”

 

Read the entire article here - http://www.newsweek.com/id/84555/output/print


Excerpts”

 

1. Serial killers, mostly. In one of the show's most grandiose storylines yet, a homicidal maniac with a thirst for homeless men is loose in Baltimore during season five—only not really, because the killer is actually a fiction created by McNulty and fed-up fellow Det. Lester Freamon (Clarke Peters). It's all a brazen publicity stunt designed to shame the mayor into funneling a few more pennies into a police force so strapped for cash that it had to shutter its wiretap investigation into a soft-spoken but brutal drug kingpin named Marlo Stanfield (Jamie Hector). As fanciful as the phony-killer plotline may sound, it is executed with "The Wire's" customary verisimilitude, and Simon's point is never far from the surface. The story is "very much a critique [of] the fixation that Americans have with the pornography of violence, as opposed to the root causes of violence," Simon wrote in a December e-mail

 

AND

2. "Let me indict Hollywood as much as I can on this one," says Simon. "We have more working black actors in key roles than pretty much all the other shows on the air. And yet you still hear people claim they can't find good African-American actors. That's why race-neutral shows and movies turn out lily-white."

None of the actors on "The Wire" has ever been nominated for an Emmy. Overall, the show has earned just one nomination in four seasons. (Pelecanos and Simon, for writing. They lost.) What really steamed Simon, though, was a story two years ago in Emmy Magazine, the Academy's trade publication, about diversity in television. The story made no mention of "The Wire." "Nothing," says Simon. "Not in the whole issue." The silent treatment from Hollywood, though, has cultivated a theater-company camaraderie around the show, a nervy pride in what can be accomplished by unheralded artists in a supposed backwater like Baltimore. "You get a lot of cachet from being the underdog," says West. "And I rather enjoy that feeling—that you're a cult thing, a secret delight. That means a lot more than an Emmy." Simon is less diplomatic. "I don't give a f––– if we ever win one of their little trinkets. I don't care if they ever figure out we're here in Baltimore," he says. "Secretly, we all know we get more ink for being shut out. So at this point, we wanna be shut out. We wanna go down in flames together, holding hands all the way. It's fun. And it's a good way to go out—throwing them the finger from 3,000 miles away

 

 

Friday, April 04, 2008

Slow Down a Little, Save a Lot of Gas

Driving 10 miles per hour faster, assuming you don't lose time getting pulled over for a speeding ticket, does have the advantage of getting you to your destination 50 minutes sooner on that 400 mile trip. Whether that time difference is worth the added cost and risk is, ultimately, up to you.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home/article/104752/Slow-Down-a-Lttle-Save-a-Lot-of-Gas

 

Once again, to summarise, remember this - Driving 10 miles per hour faster gets you to your destination 50 minutes sooner on a 400 mile trip.

Thursday, April 03, 2008

sigh, of research and experts!

Well, this is the nation that gave the world aeroplanes, rockets, nuclear technology, internet and a long list. Maybe, I should stop here and you should as well.

 

If you have decided to continue, I will begin with my rant. This is also a police state and a robot nation. What would I do without the movie “The Matrix-1”, just like the movie, the people of this great nation are incubated to be “parts(note inanimity) moving on the assembly line of capitalism, since birth!”.

 

They are told to follow rules and follow rules they will(here is a glowing tribute to what this nation has done to its people, http://www.abcactionnews.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=7e9bb859-631f-4291-b14a-19b248b235f9), subject of another discussion.

 

When research of any kind is connected, there are so many factors to take into consideration. If a person participating as a research “guinea pig” is considered – then Age, race, diet, hereditary characteristics, acquired and inherited diseases (mutations), geography and so on becomes important. Entity conducting the research, funding it received from vested/non-vested interests is worth consideration. Person(s) conducting the research, their motives, prejudices and leanings to a particular theory and subsequent recourse to do the research is to be thoroughly questioned.

 

Yes, I understand, hope and faith is what we have ultimately. Yes, I pop acetaminophen and ibuprofen on a regular basis too.

 

To make asinine research projects without putting common sense to test, I find, is appalling. What makes us above animals in the wild, I am pretty sure, researchers havent thought about in the first place. This arrogance, is primarily what leads to such shoddy reporting,

Research debunks health value of guzzling water http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0236679720080402?sp=true

 

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Hillary Clinton and TearGate!

 

“In a weirdly narcissistic way, she was crying for us. But it was grimly typical of her that what finally made her break down was the prospect of losing.”

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/09/opinion/08dowd.html?ei=5087&em=&en=22018da0e65725e0&ex=1200200400&pagewanted=print

 

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Anil Kumble and Indian Politics and Swabhiman

Swapan DasGupta writes in his article “India has arrived”

 

“There is squeamishness and a pronounced inferiority complex that mark the dealings of older Indians with foreigners. They still carry the burden of servitude and deprivation. Most politicians, including those professing Hindu nationalism, suffer from this disability — witness their awkward body language during overseas visits. Can you imagine Manmohan Singh telling Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in a Kumble-like manner to stop needling India in Arunachal Pradesh?

Political India lives in mental captivity; emerging India believes the strong shall inherit the earth. The merger of politics and swabhiman is overdue.”

 

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-2695654,prtpage-1.cms

 

Monday, January 07, 2008

Robert Cialdini - Influence and Charlie Munger's talk on behavioral economics, patterned irrationality and such

This is an eye opener, I read until the 6th bias and decided this entire article was worthy of mention. I claim to somethings about Charlie Munger but never knew he spent his life identifying, reading and making it his life’s work. We all do this every now and then - sincerely but not persevering(cause we are not acadmeicians) and are inconsistent without placing too much emphasis…more so like, arm-chair philosophers. Anyways, read the article at leisure, it will blow your mind J

 

Ofcourse, bias-1 was what we talked about last week. My favorite from the article, bias 5,

“If you carry bushel baskets full of money through the ghetto, and made it easy to steal, that would be a considerable human sin, because you'd be causing a lot of bad behavior, and the bad behavior would spread.”

 

http://www.loschmanagement.com/Berkshire%20Hathaway/Charlie%20munger/The%20Psychology%20of%20Human%20Misjudgement.htm

 

Thursday, January 03, 2008

Jim Rogers, Bull in China

An interesting answer to a question posed to this formed partner in George Soros investment firm. See what happens to all extra money(liquidity) in the market. Pretty similar things are happening in India as well. Stock market UP!, real-estate UP and finally commodities UP!

Why has the Chinese stock market taken off?

The Chinese have done a very good job [with the economy] over the past 20 years. But the one mistake they've made is they have continued to block the currency and made it nonconvertible. That's causing huge liquidity to develop in the country, and that's causing trouble. It has really intensified in the past two or three years. They've got all this money sloshing around that's been flowing into China and can't get out. It's going into the mainland stock market and driving up prices. It's going into commodities. And it's going into real estate.

 

Read the full article here - http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/12/24/101935724/index.htm?postversion=2008010309

 

 

 

Friday, December 28, 2007

Arun Shourie Article - Hindutva and radical Islam: Where the twain do meet

Impartial, just and perfect - Match this!

 

(Indian Express)Hindutva and radical Islam: Where the twain do meet

Arun Shourie

Posted online: Friday, December 28, 2007 at 0000 hrs IST


Your Hindutva is no different from Islamic fundamentalism’ — a fashionable statement these days, one that immediately establishes the person’s secular credentials. It is, of course, false, as we shall see in a moment. But there is a grain of potential truth in it — something that does not put Hinduism at par with Islam, but one that should, instead, serve as a warning to all who keep pushing Hindus around. That grain is the fact that every tradition has in it, every set of scriptures has in it enough to justify extreme, even violent reaction. From the very same Gita from which Gandhiji derived non-violence and satyagraha, Lokmanya Tilak constructed the case for ferocious response, not excluding violence.
From the very same Gita from which Gandhiji derived his ‘true law’, shatham pratyapi satyam, ‘Truth even to the wicked’, the Lokmanya derived his famous maxim, shatham prati shaathyam, ‘Wickedness to the wicked.’

In the great work, Gita Rahasya, that he wrote in the Mandalay prison, the Lokmanya invokes Sri Samartha, ‘Meet boldness with boldness; impertinence by impertinence must be met; villainy by villainy must be met.’ Large-heartedness towards those who are grasping? Forgiveness towards those who are cruel? ‘Even Prahlada, that highest of devotees of the Blessed Lord,’ the Lokmanya recalls, has said, ‘Therefore, my friend, wise men have everywhere mentioned exceptions to the principle of forgiveness.’ True, the ordinary rule is that one must not cause harm to others by doing such actions as, if done to oneself, would be harmful. But, the Mahabharata, Tilak says, ‘has made it clear that this rule should not be followed in a society, where there do not exist persons who follow the other religious principle, namely, others should not cause harm to us, which is the corollary from this first principle.’ The counsel of ‘equability’ of the Gita, he says, is bound up with two individuals; that is, it implies reciprocity. ‘Therefore, just as the principle of non-violence is not violated by killing an evil-doer, so also the principle of self-identification [of seeing the same, Eternal Self in all] or of non-enmity, which is observed by saints, is in no way affected by giving condign punishment to evil-doers.’ Does the Supreme Being not Himself declare that He takes incarnations from time to time to protect dharma and destroy evil-doers? Indeed, the one who hesitates to take the retaliatory action that is necessary assists the evil to do their work. ‘And the summary of the entire teaching of the Gita is that: even the most horrible warfare which may be carried on in these circumstances, with an equable frame of mind, is righteous and meritorious.’

Tilak invokes the advice of Bhisma, and then of Yudhisthira, ‘Religion and morality consist in behaving towards others in the same way as they behave towards us; one must behave deceitfully towards deceitful persons, and in a saintly way towards saintly persons.’ Of course, act in a saintly way in the first instance, the Lokmanya counsels. Try to dissuade the evil-doer through persuasion. ‘But if the evilness of the evil-doers is not circumvented by such saintly actions, or, if the counsel of peacefulness and propriety is not acceptable to such evil-doers, then according to the principle kantakenaiva kantakam (that is, “take out a thorn by a thorn”), it becomes necessary to take out by a needle, that is by an iron thorn, if not by an ordinary thorn, that thorn which will not come out with poultices, because under any circumstances, punishing evil-doers in the interests of general welfare, as was done by the Blessed Lord, is the first duty of saints from the point of view of Ethics.’ And the responsibility for the suffering that is caused thereby does not lie with the person who puts the evil out; it lies with the evil-doers. The Lord Himself says, Tilak recalls, ‘I give to them reward in the same manner and to the same extent that they worship Me.’ ‘In the same way,’ he says, ‘no one calls the Judge, who directs the execution of a criminal, the enemy of the criminal...’

Could the variance between two interpretations be greater than is the case between the Lokmanya’s Gita Rahasya and Gandhiji’s Anashakti Yoga? Yet both constructions are by great and devout Hindus. Are ordinary Hindus nailed to Gandhiji’s rendering? After all, at the end of the Gita, Arjuna does not go off to sit at one of our non-violent dharnas. He goes into blood-soaked battle.

The comforting mistake

The mistake is to assume that the sterner stance is something that has been fomented by this individual or that —in the case of Hindutva, by, say, Veer Savarkar — or by one organisation, say the RSS or the VHP. That is just a comforting mistake — the inference is that once that individual is calumnised, once that organisation is neutralised, ‘the problem’ will be over. Large numbers do not gravitate to this interpretation rather than that merely because an individual or an organisation has advanced it — after all, the interpretations that are available on the shelf far outnumber even the scriptures. They gravitate to the harsher rendering because events convince them that it alone will save them.

It is this tectonic shift in the Hindu mind, a shift that has been going on for 200 years, which is being underestimated. The thousand years of domination and savage oppression by rulers of other religions; domination and oppression which were exercised in the name of and for the glory of and for establishing the sway of those religions, evinced a variety of responses from the Hindus. Armed resistance for centuries... When at last such resistance became totally impossible, the revival of bhakti by the great poets... When public performance even of bhakti became perilous, sullen withdrawal, preserving the tradition by oneself, almost in secrecy: I remember being told in South Goa how families sustained their devotion by painting images of our gods and goddesses inside the tin trunks in which sheets and clothing were kept. The example of individuals: recall how the utter simplicity and manifest aura of Ramakrishna Paramhamsa negated the efforts of the missionaries, how his devotion to the image of the Goddess at Dakshineshwar restored respectability to the idolatry that the missionaries and others were traducing... The magnetism of Sri Aurobindo and Ramana Maharshi... Gandhiji’s incontestable greatness and the fact that it was so evidently rooted in his devotion to our religion...

Each of these stemmed much. But over the last 200 years the feeling has also swelled that, invaluable as these responses have been, they have not been enough. They did not prevent the country from being taken over. They did not shield the people from the cruelty of alien rulers. They did not prevent the conversion of millions. They did not prevent the tradition from being calumnised and being thrown on the defensive. They did not in the end save the country from being partitioned — from being partitioned in the name of religion...

There is a real vice here. The three great religions that originated in Palestine and Saudi Arabia — Judaism, Christianity and Islam — have been exclusivist — each has insisted that it alone is true — and aggressive. The Indic religions — Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism, Sikhism — have been inclusive, they have been indulgent of the claims of others. But how may the latter sort survive when it is confronted by one that aims at power, acquires it, and then uses it to enlarge its dominion? How is the Indic sort to survive when the other uses the sword as well as other resources — organised missionaries, money, the state — to proselytise and to convert? Nor is this question facing just the Hindus in India today. It is facing the adherents of Indic traditions wherever they are: look at the Hindus in Indonesia and Malaysia; look at the Buddhists in Tibet, now in Thailand too. It is because of this vice, and the realisation born from what had already come to pass that Swami Vivekananda, for instance, while asking the Hindus to retain their Hindu soul, exhorted them to acquire an ‘Islamic body’.

Instigating factors

We can be certain that his counsel will prevail, our secularists notwithstanding,

• The more aggressively the other religions proselytise — look at the fervour with which today the Tablighi Jamaat goes about conversion; look at the organised way in which the missionaries ‘harvest’ our souls;

• The more they use money to increase the harvest — whether it is Saudi money or that of Rome and the American churches;

• The more any of them uses violence to enlarge its sway;

• The more any of them allies itself with and uses the state — whether that of Saudi Arabia or Pakistan — for aggrandisement.

Nor is what others do from outside the only determinant. From within India, three factors in particular will make the acquiring of that Islamic body all the more certain:

• The more biased ‘secularist’ discourse is;

• The more political parties use non-Hindus — Muslims, for instance — as vote banks and the more that non-Hindu group comes to act as one — ‘strategic voting’ and all;

• The more the state of India bends to these exclusivist, aggressive traditions.

It has almost become routine to slight Hindu sentiments — our smart-set do not even notice the slights they administer. Recall the jibe of decades: ‘the Hindu rate of growth’. When, because of those very socialist policies that their kind had swallowed and imposed on the country, our growth was held down to 3-4 per cent, it was dubbed — with much glee — as ‘the Hindu rate of growth’. Today, we are growing at 9 per cent. And, if you are to believe the nonsense in Sachar’s report, the minorities are not growing at all. So, who is responsible for this higher rate of growth? The Hindus! How come no one calls this higher rate of growth ‘the Hindu rate of growth’? Simple: dubbing the low rate as the Hindu one established you to be secular; not acknowledging the higher one as the Hindu rate establishes you to be secular!

Or M.F. Husain. He is a kindly man, and a prodigiously productive artist. There is no warrant at all for disrupting all his exhibitions. I am on the point of sensibilities. His depictions of Hindu goddesses have been in the news: he has painted them in less than skimpy attire. I particularly remember one in which Sita is riding Hanuman’s stiffened tail — of course, she is scarcely clad, but that is the least of it: you need no imagination at all to see what she is rubbing up against that stiffened tail. Well, in the case of an artist, that is just inspiration, say the secularists. OK. The question that arises then is: How come in the seventy-five years Husain has been painting, he has not once felt inspired, not once, to paint the face of the Prophet? It doesn’t have to be in the style in which he has painted the Hindu goddesses. Why not the most beautiful, the most radiant and luminous face that he can imagine? How come he has never felt inspired to paint women revered in Islam, or in his own family, in the same style as the one that propelled his inspiration in regard to Hindu goddesses?

‘In painting the goddesses, he was just honouring them,’ a secular intellectual remarked at a discussion the other day. ‘It was his way of honouring them.’ Fine. It is indeed the case that one of the best ways we can honour someone is to put the one skill we have at the service of the person or deity. But how come that Husain never but never thought of honouring the Prophet by using the same priceless skill, that one ‘talent which is death to hide’?

‘Has Mr Shourie ever visited Khajuraho?,’ a member of the audience asked, the implication being that, as Hindu sculptors had depicted personages naked, what was wrong with Husain depicting the goddesses in the same style. Fine again. But surely, it is no one’s case that the ‘Khajuraho style’ must be confined to Hindu icons. Why has the artist, so skilled in deploying the Khajuraho motifs, never used them for icons of Islam? The reason why an artist desists from depicting the Prophet’s face is none of these convoluted disquisitions on style.

The reason is simplicity itself: he knows he will be thrashed, and his hands smashed.

Exactly the same holds for politics. How come no one objects when for years a Muslim politician keeps publishing maps of constituencies in which Muslims as Muslims can determine the outcome, and exhorting them to do so? When, not just an individual politician but entire political parties — from the Congress to the Left parties — stir Muslims up as a vote bank. When Muslims start behaving like a vote bank, you can be certain that someone will get the idea that Hindus too should be welded into a vote bank, and eventually they will get welded into one. Why is stoking Muslims ‘secular’ and stoking Hindus ‘communal’?

And yet perverted discourse, even the stratagems of political parties, are but preparation: they prepare the ground for capitulation by the state to groups that are aggressive. And in this the real lunacy is about to be launched, and, with that, the real reaction.

 

Tom Gardner & SELECT COMFORT - "one of the worst stocks I've ever recommended."

I beg to differ on the last one - http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2007/12/27/2-ways-to-profit-from-the-drop.aspx?source=ihptcltpa0000001

Excerpt:

Get rich or die tryin'
We all make investing mistakes. The key is not to make them again.

We've been dealing with this at our Motley Fool Hidden Gems small-cap investing service. Small caps have been among the hardest hit by the recent market swoon, and Fool co-founder Tom Gardner is coming to terms with what he called "one of the worst stocks I've ever recommended."

That stock is mattress-maker Select Comfort, and despite having a quality product, management has been slow to learn from its marketing mistakes and adapt to declining demand. That's putting it mildly for a stock that's down nearly 60% year to date, but in Tom's opinion, the problem is at the top.

Lose and learn
Tom's autopsy of this recommendation has yielded a four-point checklist that should help make us all better investors:

  1. Make sure the CEO at your companies has been pursuing mastery in a relevant industry for more than a decade and demonstrates daily passion for the business.
  2. Make sure the company is taking bold steps that match up with your beliefs about the company's potential. If you come to believe you can do a better job of running the company than its leadership, it's time to sell.
  3. Make sure your company has leadership that in every way demonstrates partnership with each of the constituents of its business -- customer, employee, and, perhaps most important, shareholder.
  4. Make sure you have a diversified portfolio to fall back on if you turn out to be wrong.

 

Check this out

Why you should not invest in Mutual funds?

 

Rather why NOT invest in hedge funds which are better than mutual funds anyways? You will have to read the first question before moving to the second which contains the answer. You can also read the entire interview(3parts) below.

 

An old article on TMF between Rich Smith and John Mauldin(www.2000wave.com.)

Rich: Your letters often refer to a "$1 million net worth" requirement for individual investors to attend such-and-such conference or invest in certain fund. Can you briefly tell us what this requirement is, who sets it, and why you don't seem to entirely approve of it?

John: It's a requirement that originates with Congress, and it basically relates to hedge funds. The rules limit the number of investors in private funds to 99 investors worth $1,000,000 or more or 500 investors worth $5,000,000 or more, with a number of variations for certain types of funds, which can be very confusing to the individual. Take away the net worth requirement and the investor limits, and anyone could invest in a hedge fund, just like anyone can invest in stocks, options, real estate, commodities, and similar "risky" investments. I testified to Congress a few years ago that they should create a new class of regulated hedge fund so that smaller investors could invest on a level playing filed with the richer investor.

Congress also restricts the right of "registered investment advisors" to charge an "incentive fee" -- that's the 20%-of-the-profits take that you hear about all the hedge funds charging their clients. Basically, the rule is that you have to restrict your clients to persons with a net worth of $1.5 million before you're entitled to charge the incentive fee. Now, since hedge funds have to register, the minimum net worth is essentially $1.5 million.

Personally, I think the rule is profoundly unfair. It means the rich get the best deals. I mean, are hedge funds really more risky than stocks, commodities, futures, real estate, or other kinds of investments? And who is Congress to tell people with less than $1.5 million or $5 million, "No, you can't invest your own money in funds the rich get to use?" If Congress said that women and minorities couldn't invest in it, there'd be rioting in the streets. But for some reason, it seems Congress is happy to discriminate against "poor" people and only let the "rich" invest in hedge funds. It's insanity.

Rich: What is the rationale behind the rule?

John: Lobbyists from the mutual fund industry tell congressmen that hedge funds are too volatile and risky for the average person, who has to be protected. Congress doesn't know any better and so, like useful idiots, they pass the laws they're told to.

So the intentions are good, but the result is most profoundly unfair. If individuals could invest in hedge funds -- which outperform mutual funds with comparable investment styles by as much as 300 to 400 basis points by the way -- then mutual funds would get beaten hands down. Investors would flock to hedge funds in droves because they're simply doing a better job of earning people money, especially in down markets. Mutual funds would lose market share and that is why they oppose such changes in the rules.

http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2006/05/08/hedge-funds-for-everyone.aspx

http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2006/05/09/recession-in-2007.aspx

http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2006/05/10/go-global.aspx

 

 

Worthless rating agencies : Shame on you MCO, MHP & Fitch

Time to recall my favorite phrase from “Apocalypse Now”, “the Horror”, actually, “The greed!” I will give credit to the author Jon C Oggs for having forseen the Enron debacle and how it could have been saved from happening if the “RATING AGENCIES” did what they were supposed to do. “HISTORY REPEATS ALL OVER AGAIN” – reminds me of Santayana’s famous words – “Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it”

 

However, as I write this, it occurs to me that while I have read history and claim to know it, I still suffer from the trickle-down effects of the handi-works of the bond insurers. Hopefully, congress will pass a law and also break the “conflict of interest” clause. A rating agency CANNOT be answerable to the public…something like the Federal Reserve!

 

Police me, police me police me!

 

~

 

 

The following article captures the greed of Moodys and McGrawHills S&P.

http://www.247wallst.com/2007/12/independent-rat.html

 

Quoting Jon C Ogg’s,

 

I have personally been on the record stating that if certain Enron transactions were structured differently and adequately rated by the debt ratings agencies AHEAD of the fraud realization (even after the fraud that was occuring there) and without some of the certain debt rating triggers and subsequent stock price triggers that the company would have actually survived as an entity. 

 

And the current times have been beautifully captured by this paragraph towards the end,

 

The business model has been flawed, and partly responsible for a portion of the mess in the debt markets right now. "Pay us to assign a rating to you, and we'll give you a fair and accurate rating that will allow investors to decide to invest or not. Then we'll charge the public and subscribers to get access to the research."

 

Another article by the same author, Worthless rating agencies : http://www.247wallst.com/2007/12/worthless-ratin.html

 

Also, I am a wee-bit surprised that Warren Buffett who bought Moody’s(19% share holder) never foresaw the “rating-mess”…isnt life full of surprises?

 

 

 

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