Interesting points are made by the OP(original poster) bozob - Oil is being used as a hedge for $ depreciation(so is gold) and it is long due for a correction soon...Supply/Demand forecasts the high oil prices are here to stay and continue their march upward, however, post 16 offers respite and hope otherwise. As one poster wrote, Exxon(XOM) will comtinue to make and post record profits...but 100% susceptible to what rises falls owing to the rise of Prius revolution.
Also, the whole "PRIUS revolution" has begun slowly - it will take a few years, maybe 5-10 assuming that this roughly the timespan the average Joe and Jane buy their next car(it cd also be sooner due to high inflation, depressed wages).
Sources:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121010625118671575.html?mod=...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121015830066573617.html?mod=...
http://instapundit.com/archives2/018985.php
http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/2008/05/fleet-positions-itself-for-war.html
This link derives a special mention and place in this post :
http://www.superfactory.com/articles/meyer_what_in_the_world.htm By Herbert Meyer
Herbert Meyer served during the Reagan administration as special assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence and Vice Chairman of the CIA’s National Intelligence Council. In these positions, he managed production of the U.S. National Intelligence Estimates and other top-secret projections for the President and his national security advisers. Meyer is widely credited with being the first senior U.S. Government official to forecast the Soviet Unions collapse, for which he later was awarded the U.S. National Intelligence Distinguished Service Medal, the intelligence community's highest honor. Formerly an associate editor of FORTUNE, he is alsothe author of several books.
Consumption of Oil by Nations
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_con-energy-oil-consumption
Showing latest available data.
Rank Countries Amount (top to bottom)
#1 United States: 20,730,000 bbl/day
#2 China: 6,534,000 bbl/day
#3 Japan: 5,578,000 bbl/day
#4 Germany: 2,650,000 bbl/day
#5 Russia: 2,500,000 bbl/day
#6 India: 2,450,000 bbl/day
#7 Canada: 2,294,000 bbl/day
#8 Korea, South: 2,149,000 bbl/day
#9 Brazil: 2,100,000 bbl/day
#10 France: 1,970,000 bbl/day
Finally, this thread, kind of ends(atleast for now) with comments from "bozob" which the author of this blog seems to agree...history has shown this is true and history needs to be respected and revisited too(Santayana's warning to the masses must be remembered here!).
At least for me, I'm certainly not saying anything is different. Higher demand and lower supply... those have been going on forever. Prices will rise; I am 100% certain of that.
I'm not so certain of that.
Oil cost far more than many other forms of energy with its primary advantage being its portability. There are currently a number of research efforts to find ways of storing enouhg of other forms of energy to make them portable. Once this happens then the other forms of energy become a replacement for oil.
What happens when you can charge up your car in short periods of time for long trips the equivalent of about a $1/gallon? That is the estimate of the cost of equivalent power and there seem to be a number of potential candidates to achieve this.
Lithium-ion batteries that have a nanowire component could last much longer and store up to ten times more charge than conventional batteries. A paper online this week in Nature Nanotechnology reports that these batteries, with anodes made from silicon nanowires, are meeting high expectations.
Rechargeable lithium-ion batteries are found in numerous portable electronics — from iPods to laptops. Typically, carbon is used as the anode electrode in these batteries, but silicon anodes should be able to store up to ten times more charge. The problem with silicon is that the repeated insertion and extraction of lithium ions causes it to degrade and fall apart, leading to poor battery performance over time.
The anodes designed by Yi Cui and co-workers are made from silicon nanowires that are grown directly on a stainless steel substrate, which serves as the current collector. These anodes reach the maximum theoretical charge capacity for silicon on the first charge cycle and stay close to 75% of this maximum over many charge and discharge cycles. The study attributes the success of the silicon nanowire anodes to a combination of excellent electrical contact with the substrate, improved strain relief and the one-dimensional electrical properties of silicon nanowires.
http://www.nature.com/nnano/press_releases/nnano1207.html
A traditional Li-Ion battery configured for a Prius would give it a range of about 7 miles. Toyota is supposedly planning a plug-in that will hold two batteries for a range of up to 14 miles. With this technology you could get 140 miles and improve charge times.
Another area being explored are micro-turbines as highly efficient electrical generators.
I think we are on the verge of another cusp in automobile efficiencies. The last one improved fuel efficiencies as much as two to threefold using aerodynamics, newer and lighter materials, and computer controlled engine controls like fuel injection and valve timing. The new technologies could likely see another doubling or tripling of fuel efficiencies.
Remove that much demand from world oil demand and you'll see prices drop again.
